Sukhum, Three Abkhazian policemen were injured in an armed attack on their car in the Gal district of Abkhazia, Abkhazian presidential envoy in the Gal district Ruslan Kishmaria told Itar-Tass on Friday.

The armed incident occurred in the village of Nabakevi in the immediate vicinity from the Georgian-Abkhazian administrative border. The police patrol car hit a mine planted on the road and then came under fire.

02.29.2008  Itar-Tass

According to reports, three policemen have been injured in a powerful explosion in Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia. Apparently a bomb hit their car and then they were raked with automatic gunfire.

The officers fired back and the attackers fled across the border into Georgian territory.

On Thursday another blast killed two policemen and left 17 others injured in South Ossetia.

The explosives were reportedly hidden in a television set left at a militia post.

02.29.2008  Russia Today

The people rights are higher than the state's. So if Russia decides to integrate with Abkhazia, this will be a violation of international law. But the people of Abkhazia have a right to secede from Georgia and establish an independent state, if they want to.

The same principle applies to Kosovo, which does not intend to become part of another nation, but wants to be an independent state in its own right, writes a prominent Russian analyst.

Nikolai Zlobin, director of Russian and Asian programs of the U.S. Information Defense Center, writes in the popular daily Vremya Novostei that Kosovo's independence is under the condition that it does not become part of any other state.

Therefore, it would not be correct to compare the Kosovo situation with the Munich Agreement, under which the Czech Sudetenland was incorporated into Germany in 1938, he writes.

What has happened in Serbia is a human tragedy, but it began long before February 17 when Kosovo proclaimed its independence.

According to Zlobin, Russian delegates said at meetings in Washington and Brussels over the last few months that the Kremlin would take harsh measures, but later added off the record that it would do nothing.

Just as Abkhazia will not reunite with Georgia, so Kosovo will not reunite with Serbia, no matter how broad an autonomy it is offered and whatever the stance of the UN Security Council. The European Union and the United States have decided to respect realities and assumed full responsibility. They decided that maintaining Kosovo's status quo would be more dangerous than disrupting it.

International law is not rigid, the analyst writes. Russia must become a leader in developing new international law. The world must stop clinging to old norms and procedures, even though they did offer certain privileges in the past, but start molding the future from current realities.

Serbia wants to join the EU and NATO, and Kosovo and other Balkan states want the same for themselves. Serbia should have created conditions under which the rebel province would not want to break away. But it failed, Zlobin writes.

President Vladimir Putin has started talking about making Russia an attractive country, which is a wise decision and a more effective method of fighting separatism than appeals to other states, which care more for their own problems. Zlobin writes that we should create a country other countries would like to be friends with and even join.

02.29.2008  RIA Novosti

This statement of Bagapsh's came surprisingly at a time when the Abkhazian administration was expected to call on the international community to recognize Abkhazia in the wake of Kosovo's declaration of independence. It further said: "Abkhazia is a state of law. Abkhazia will never be led into choosing money to come from Western countries over its independence. The Abkhazian administration is prepared to dialogue with any country, including members of the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), though it holds on to some principles that cannot be sacrificed for anything."

Depending upon Kosovo, which declared unilateral independence without bothering to hear a decision from the United Nations (UN), the format of negotiations between Georgia and Abkhazia would remain unchanged, said Bagapsh: "This is so because the UN Secretary General's Group of Friends has not changed its stance [even after Kosovo's declaration of independence]. The UN holds no claim at all to exist any more, because it has lost its authority."

Bagapsh also underlined his decision not to maintain talks with Georgian officials until the problem that has arisen out of Georgia's deployment of military force in Kodor gets resolved.

02.28.2008  Agency Caucasus

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili threatened yesterday to use force, if necessary, to free Georgian journalists Malkhaz Basilaya and David Tsotsoria from the Georgian television channel Mze, who were taken into custody by Abkhazian state security agents in the Gal area while covering the Russian presidential election in Abkhazia. Tensions have been high between Georgian and Abkhazia since Kosovo declared its independence.

The journalists have been charged with illegally crossing the state border of Abkhazia. Abkhazian security agents are convinced that the men are actually spies who were trying to film Abkhazian military installations. In Georgia, they say only Vasilaya was taken captive.

Saakashvili gave an explosive speech in which he addresses Abkhazian President Sergey Bagapsh personally, saying that he would order Georgian Interior Ministry forces into Sukhum to free the journalist, if the Abkhazians do not do so themselves. Bagapsh warned UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour, who was visiting Sukhum yesterday, that Abkhazia would no longer show leniency to violators of Abkhazian borders because “our gestures for goodwill were received inadequately in Tbilisi.”

02.28.2008  Kommersant

Moscow, Chairman of Russia's Central Election Commission Vladimir Churov dismissed the note of protest from the Georgian Foreign Ministry, over advanced voting in the Russian presidential election in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

"The Russian Foreign Ministry, on the eve of every federal election, traditionally asks for Georgia's permission to hold voting for Russian citizens and traditionally doesn’t receive any answer," Churov explained, commenting on the situation at Itar-Tass's request.

"A Georgian statement invariably comes on the eve of the voting. It's a usual practice," he underlined.

Abkhazia began advanced voting on February 25. Some 80 percent of Abkhazia's residents have Russian citizenship. The voting stations are opened on the premises of military sanatoria and other facilities belonging to the Russian Federation.

On Tuesday, the Georgian Foreign Ministry handed in a note to Russian Ambassador to Georgia Vyacheslav Kovalenko, "protesting Russia' holding the presidential election in the Abkhazian and Tskhinvali districts without coordination with Georgia’s central authorities."

Transdniestria and two other states are preparing their own requests for establishing diplomatic relations with others. This comes after the self-declared Republic of Kosovo has received select recognition from almost 15% of the world's countries. Residents in the unrecognized countries are now asking: 'Why Not Us?'

Sukhum, "If anyone thinks that Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria will stop after the recognition of Kosovo, they are making a big mistake," announced Abkhazia's President Sergei Bagapsh right after Kosovo unilaterally declared independence against the wishes of Serbia.

Along with his counterpart in Transdniestria - President Igor Smirnov - he is now preparing a joint appeal for recognition of the states, turning their current 'de facto' reality of independent statehood into a formal 'de jure' situation after nearly two decades in legal limbo.

In both Abkhazia and Transdniestria, residents are now asking: If Kosovo can be recognized as an independent state, why can't we?

" - Kosovo is a precedent," declared Bagapsh, saying that Abkhazia, Transdniestria and South Ossetia would submit requests for the recognition of their independence to Russia, the United Nations and the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States). At the same time, however, he stresses that the countries have a better case for independent statehood than Kosovo, both historically and legally under international law.

" - We said one and two years ago that the recognition of Kosovo was immaterial to us. We started our independence campaign earlier and would continue it to the end," Bagapsh said.

Four unrecognized countries

Along with South Ossetia, Nagorno Karabakh and Transdniestria, the new and emerging Republic of Abkhazia is one of the four former Soviet regions that declared their independence in the 1990s and fought for their independence but that have not yet been recognized as states. Officials and citizens alike are now saying that Kosovo would create a legal precedent that they too could follow.

" - If they recognized Kosovo, how are we any worse?" said Nodar Sheoua, a student in Sukhum, as reported by Reuters.

Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia on Sunday. Less than 15% of the world's countries have given formal recognition to Kosovo.

Kosovo has declared its independence. Russia was only a spectator in the process, cheering as loud as it could and threatening the possibility of independence for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia's two breakaway regions.

On the issue of unrecognized republics, Russians are split between two camps -- patriots and liberals.

Patriots believe that Kosovo should be a part of Serbia, but when it comes to Abkhazia, it is a different matter entirely. They believe that Abkhazia should not be a part of Georgia. Liberals believe that Kosovo should be independent, but they also think that the situation in Abkhazia is different.

As it turns out, our patriots and liberals share remarkably similar views. They both agree that Kosovo is one thing and Abkhazia is quite another.

In my opinion, however, the two cases are identical. Both Serbia and Georgia freed themselves from the influence of the Soviet Union. After gaining freedom, both began instituting repressive measures against ethnic minorities in their territories -- in Georgia, it was war; in Serbia, genocide. Thus, both of these small countries decided to become small versions of the Soviet Union.

Later, both nations underwent regime changes, and the current leaders in both countries would never repeat the mistakes of their predecessors.

What is the greatest difference between Kosovo and Abkhazia? It is not so much between these two regions themselves, but between Europe's official position on Kosovo and the Kremlin's position on Abkhazia.

Europe's policy toward Kosovo is very rational. It does not want to support a weak semi-state in the center of the continent. Europe wants to see a self-sufficient Kosovo and recognizes that this is impossible without recognizing Kosovo's independence.

On the surface, it appears that Moscow is providing assistance to Abkhazia, but it is really doing everything to ensure that Abkhazia never gains independence.

If Russia really wants to improve Abkhazia's condition, it should stop doing two things. First, Moscow should put an end to the delays at the Russian-Abkhaz border crossing lasting hours. It should also stop provoking military conflicts on the border between Abkhazia and Georgia. Once Russia stops doing these two things, the people of Abkhazia will be able to lead a normal life.

The real problem is that Russia does not want Abkhazia to have a normal life. The endless waits at the border guarantee that no tourists, with the possible exception of the poorest, will ever try to visit Abkhazia. The constant skirmishes in the mountainous regions are a sure way to put off possible investors. As partial compensation, Moscow not only grants Abkhaz residents Russian passports, but also provides them with pensions and social benefits, fostering a sense of dependence on Moscow.

In reality, though, Russia is less interested in helping the people of Abkhazia than it is in causing problems for Georgia.

Abkhazia is destined to become independent. Having won the war against Georgia, this small republic already enjoys a sort of de facto independence from Tbilisi. Moreover, Abkhazia's geographic position is such that the only road available to Georgia to invade Abkhazia is through the perilous Kodor Gorge, which Abkhazia can easily defend by a small group of fighters.

In any event, starting a war with Abkhazia would amount to fighting an entire people, and this would entail unacceptable military and civilian casualties for Georgia. Since President Mikheil Saakashvili is attempting to build a democratic state, he would not be willing to sustain these losses.

Any way you look at it, Abkhazia is doomed to become independent. And today's democratic Georgia is doomed to pay the price for the previous government, which made two crucial mistakes -- sending tanks into Abkhazia in 1992 and, even worse, losing the war. In a similar way, Serbia is also paying a high price for the crimes of former President Slobodan Milosevic.

Yulia Latynina hosts a political talk show on Ekho Moskvy radio

Whether the West likes it or not, Kosovo's independence will have a strong ripple effect. So says renowned Caucasus expert Thomas de Waal of London's IWPR. He also adds that re-integration of 'de facto' independent countries into states that "they have nothing in common with" is a fantasy.

London, A leading expert on territorial conflicts in what used to be the Soviet Union says that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence will have a strong ripple effect. Thomas de Waal, who is the Caucasus Editor at London's IWPR, the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, writes in his latest commentary for The Wall Street Journal that Kosovo is further thawing conflicts that have been mistakenly called "frozen."

" - Whether the West likes it or not, Kosovo's independence will have a strong ripple effect," notes Thomas de Waal: "Consider the calculation made by the de facto leaders of Abkhazia or Nagorno-Karabakh when they hear the news from Kosovo: They will be even less likely to try to sell a bargain to their people that entails "return" to the sovereignty of Azerbaijan or Georgia."

" - Recognition of Kosovo’s independence does change the situation elsewhere, whether Westerners like it or not," he also stated to Balkan Insight.

Fear of new wars

De Waal warns that new wars may be on the horizon: Azerbaijan has the fastest-growing defense budget in the world, while the Georgian government recently renamed its conflict resolution ministry into the more aggressively titled "ministry for reintegration."

" - Kosovo is further thawing conflicts that have been mistakenly called "frozen." The peace processes are already all but dead. Around Nagorno-Karabakh, now under Armenian control, snipers exchange deadly fire across a 200 kilometer cease-fire line," he adds. "Shooting incidents and kidnappings set nerves jangling in Abkhazia and South Ossetia."

Thomas de Waal is Caucasus Editor at IWPR, the Institute for War and Peace Reporting. He is also the author of “Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War” (NYU Press, 2003); a book which focuses on the independence struggle of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic.

" - In truth, neither side here will get what they want. Full independence for these territories is highly implausible, especially when large minority populations remain in exile and are not consulted; but integration of these territories into Azerbaijan or Georgia, places they have had nothing in common with since Soviet times and fought wars against, is also fantasy," says Thomas de Waal. "The only way "reintegration" can be achieved is through another catastrophic war. Everyone knows that some kind of shared sovereignty must be the eventual outcome."

"Look what the Kosovars got"

Speaking of Abkhazia and Nagorno Karabakh, two already de-facto independent countries, Thomas de Waal repeats that re-integration into their former states of Georgia and Azerbaijan are no longer serious options for them. He explains that the natural response from the public will be: “Look what the Kosovars got. We won’t settle for less.”

" - President Vladimir Putin has also proved more far-sighted than his Western counterparts in predicting that Kosovo’s independence declaration would have repercussions for other separatist disputes while politicians in Washington or Brussels were insisting in a leGalstic fashion that 'Kosovo does not set a precedent'," explains de Waal.

In his final press conference as Russia’s President on February 14, Putin pressed home this point. “We are told all the time: Kosovo is a special case,” Putin said. “It is all lies. There is no special case and everybody understands it perfectly well.”

According to Thomas de Waal, Abkhazia possesses fairly viable institutions, including a presidency, parliament, media and NGOs. Numerous other analysts have also pointed out that as a separate country, it stands a better chance for long-term statehood than Kosovo. So does Transdniestria (officially, Pridnestrovie) which since 1990 has governed itself without any form of financial aid from international monetary institutions, the European Union, the United Nations or its neighbor, Moldova.

The Republic of Moldova is Europe's poorest country. It declared independence from the Soviet Union one year later than Transdniestria, in 1991. In 1992 it crossed the Dniester river to attack the Republic of Transdniestria but was unable to establish its sovereignty over the territory and had to sign a cease-fire which is today overseen by a team of multinational peacekeepers from a total of four countries and representatives of the 56-member nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

02.26.2008  The Tiraspol Times

All 12 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders are expected to attend today's informal summit in Moscow -- a rare event considering the tendency of some member states to boycott CIS summits over Russia's domination of the grouping.

Energy cooperation and immigration policies are among the topics of discussion by CIS members, which comprise all former Soviet countries minus the Baltic states.
 

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev is expected to urge Russia to do more to curb a wave of racially motivated crimes. Kyrgyzstan's parliament adopted a resolution on February 22 calling on the Russian legislature to address the issue following a spate of killings of Kyrgyz migrants.
 

Addressing the gathering, outgoing Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is scheduled to hold one-to-one meetings with some heads of state, said: "Although we have more than enough problems, we have been able to avoid unnecessary worsening [of relations] where it could have happened. We have always sought solutions acceptable to each of our countries."
 

Russian political analyst Aleksei Mukhin says the summit is an occasion for participants to get a closer look at First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's anointed successor and the absolute favorite to win the March 2 presidential election. Mukhin says Putin will present "Medvedev as his successor and officially take leave from his CIS partners."
 

Putin stressed to his fellow CIS leaders that they will see little change in future dealing with Medvedev. "It was together with [Medvedev] that I have made crucial decisions, including those in the most important area of foreign policy for us, the CIS," Putin said. "Essentially, he is one of the authors of Russia's policy in this area. I don't believe we should or will have any revolutionary changes here because [Medvedev] is one of the authors of Russia's [CIS] policy."
 

Under Kosovo's Shadow
 

But Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia on February 17 threatens to spark a heated debate over the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are backed by Moscow.
 

A Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would deal a severe blow to already strained ties with Georgia, whose president has vowed to bring the breakaway regions back into the fold.
 

"It has somewhat changed the summit's format by introducing a new element: a discussion on what to do with South Ossetia and Abkhazia," Mukhin says. Georgian President Mikheil "Saakashvili, who traveled to the summit to solve internal Georgian issues, will have to answer uncomfortable questions."
 

Kosovo's declaration of independence has raised speculation that both regions would use the summit to ask the CIS to recognize their sovereignty.
 

But Sergei Bagapsh and Eduard Kokoity, the de facto presidents of Abkhaz and South Ossetian governments, told the Russian news agency Interfax they didn't intend to raise the issue at the summit.
 

However, they did confirm plans to send a formal recognition request to Russia, CIS states, and NATO in the near future.
 

Kosovo's independence comes as relations between Moscow and Tbilisi are showing signs of warming.
 

Putin held a rare meeting with Saakashvili in Moscow on February 21 in a bid to iron out some of the differences that have soured ties between the two countries.
 

They agreed to restore direct flights linking Russia and Georgia after an  almost 16-month embargo. Striking a conciliatory tone, Georgia's president said he expected "new momentum" in bilateral relations and invited Putin to visit his country.
 

Putin praised what he described as "adjustments" in Georgia's stance on Russia and pledged to "answer in kind," raising hopes that Moscow will lift a ban on Georgian wine and mineral water that has hurt the country's economy.
 

(RFE/RL's Turkmen Service contributed to this report.)

Statement by the Chairman

High-level meeting of the Group of Friends of the Secretary-General

18-19 February 2008, Geneva

On 18-19 February 2008, senior representatives of the Group of Friends of the Secretary-General met in Geneva under the chairmanship of the United Nations Assistant-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations. Together with the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, the Friends took stock of developments in the United Nations-led Georgian-Abkhaz peace process since their last meeting at Bonn in June 2007 and discussed ways and means to advance the settlement of the conflict.  Representatives of the Georgian and Abkhaz sides took part in the meeting. >>>>

Moscow, Russia could possibly recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but a serious crisis in the CIS would follow, a top Russian lawmaker said on Tuesday.

Leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, said that Kosovo's independence proclaimed unilaterally last Sunday should be taken into account as far as their sovereignty is concerned.

"We should understand that by recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia we could trigger a serious crisis in the CIS," Konstantin Kosachyov, head of the International Affairs Committee at the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, said, adding that over half of all ex-Soviet states "have their own Kosovo and Abkhazia."

In the 1990s, CIS member states forged an agreement that their state frontiers should be defined by Soviet administrative borders and any violation of the agreement could mar diplomatic relations not only with the CIS countries, but also with NATO, the EU and the U.S.

"From the viewpoint of international law, we recognize Georgia in its borders, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia," the lawmaker said.

The Russian parliament said in a statement on Monday that the Kosovo precedent gives Russia the right to forge new relationships with self-proclaimed states.

"The declaration of sovereignty by Kosovo and its recognition will undoubtedly be taken into account in [Russia's] relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement last week.

02.19.2008  RIA Novosti

Moscow, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria will continue their independence campaign after the recognition of Kosovo, Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh told a Monday press conference at the Interfax main office.

"If anyone thinks that Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria will stop after the recognition of Kosovo, they are making a big mistake," he said.

"We said one and two years ago that the recognition of Kosovo was immaterial to us. We started our [independence] campaign earlier and would continue it to the end," he said.

02.18.2008  Interfax

Moscow, Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh said he would call for the lifting of the embargo on his republic and the restoration ofexternal traffic.

"Once they recognize Kosovo, it is probably necessary to reconsider the embargo on Abkhazia and resume sea, air and railroad traffic," he told a press conference at the Interfax main office on Monday.

02.18.2008  Interfax

Today Russia has declared it is to change its position on Abkhazia and South Ossetia status in case of Kosovo’s independence recognition, reported the Russian Foreign Ministry.

At that Russia intends to contribute to the peaceful settlement of Georgian- Abkhazian and Georgian –South Ossetian conflicts according to the present agreements and it is to resist to any military attempts to solve the problem.

This statement was claimed after the meeting of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the Abkhazian president Sergey Bagapsh and the head of South Ossetia Eduard Koyota. During the meeting all the sided confirmed their intention to raise the issue of renewal of the negotiation process of the conflict settlement.

02.15.2008  Russia IC

Sukhum, The prospects for international recognition of Abkhazia's independence count entirely on Abkhazia's internal course of development, said Natella Akaba, Secretary of the country's Civilian Parliament.

In her televised interview with the Abkhazian National Television, Akaba said that Abkhazians were not pleased with statements from russian officials about the chances of Abkhazia's independence being internationally recognized. "It will be easier to get recognition, not only from the Russian Federation but from all over the world, we have been seeking if we can construct a democratic state establishment."

The Abkhazian administration argues for a claim stronger than that which Kosovo holds for international recognition of its independence. "It is not right that Abkhazians are not as much entitled to recognition as Kosovors are. We are having our own history in our own country and we are establishing an independent state on our own," said Sergei Shamba, Foreign Minister of Abkhazia to reinforce his administration's argument.

02.10.2008  Agency Caucasus

Moscow, Depending on how other nations deal with a potential independence declaration by Kosovo, Russia will be ready to "reconsider its stance" on two new and emerging countries. So says Russia's Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov. The countries, Pridnestrovie and Abkhazia, already meet the requirements for sovereign statehood under international law.

If Kosovo’s independence is declared, Russia should reconsider its stance on Abkhazia and Pridnestrovie, Sergei Mironov, the Speaker of the Federation Council, Russia's Upper House of Parliament, said on Tuesday, referring to the two unrecognized countries whose territories are claimed by Georgia and Moldova, respectively.

" - We should make conclusions and reconsider our attitude to the known territories from a perspective of the situation around Kosovo," he told reporters on Tuesday, according to local news agency Itar-Tass.

" - Kosovo is a very dangerous international precedent that will have the most unforeseeable consequences. Many European regions want to raise the question of reconsidering their relations with countries, within which they are."

" - In case of unilateral proclamation of Kosovo’s independence, we shall observe for the first time since the Second World War forced changes of borders in Europe. Russia will take a consistent and principled stance on the Kosovo issue. We shall not turn away from this path," Mironov said.

Although both Abkhazia and Pridnestrovie already meet the requirements for statehood under international law, Russian diplomacy has so far followed a conservative line and refrained from granting formal recognition to the two 'de facto' independent countries.

02.06.2008  Tiraspol Times

Moscow, If Kosovo’s independence is declared, Russia should reconsider its stance on Abkhazia and the Dniester region, Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov said on Tuesday, referring to breakaway regions of Georgia and Moldova.

“We should make conclusions and reconsider our attitude to the known territories from a perspective of the situation around Kosovo,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

“Kosovo is a very dangerous international precedent that will have the most unforeseeable consequences. Many European regions want to raise the question of reconsidering their relations with countries, within which they are.”

“In case of unilateral proclamation of Kosovo’s independence, we shall observe for the first time since the Second World War forced changes of borders in Europe. Russia will take a consistent and principled stance on the Kosovo issue. We shall not turn away from this path,” Mironov said.

02.05.2008  ITAR-TASS

Even if West recognizes Kosovo’s independence, Russia will not tacitly recognize independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, independent Russian military expert Pavel Fengelhauer said.

“However, Russia is unpredictable country and no one knows what decision Kremlin can make,” he noted.

“Diplomats think that Russia should not recognize independence of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnistira and Nagorno Karabakh. But it’s hard to make a cast ahead. Nevertheless, Russia is not ready either to help Georgia to resolve conflicts or recognize independence of the breakaway regions,” he said, 1news.az reports.

02.01.2008  PanARMENIAN

Moscow, Russia urges Tbilisi and Sukhum to coordinate and sign as soon as possible an agreement on no use of force and on security guarantees, said a representative of the Russian foreign Ministry, commenting on the report of U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the current situation with the settlement of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict, which was made public last week.

“The early coordination and signing of the agreement on no use of force and on security guarantees by Tbilisi and Sukhum could become a serious factor of the consolidation of security and stability in the area,” said the Foreign Ministry official. ”A new impetus could be given to the skidding negotiating process with the help of the agreement. The U.N. report pointed with regret to the absence of direct contacts between Georgia and Abkhazia.”

Russia is sure that “the non-fulfilment by Georgia of all its commitments under the 1994 Moscow Agreement, as well as of Resolutions No. 1716, No. 1752 and No. 1781 of the U.N. Security Council concerning the upper part of the Kodor Gorge is the main reason for the refusal of Abkhazia to hold talks.”

“U.N. representatives evaluated the situation with the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict not only on the basis of the information coming from Tbilisi, but also on the basis of information from many other sources. As a result of it, they drew a well-balanced and trustworthy picture of the developments taking place in the area. The document contains detailed and, on the whole, impartial information on various aspects of the negotiating and peacekeeping processes,” the Foreign Ministry official said.

The report expressed concern over the continuing tension in the security zone and urged the conflicting parties to refrain from violence and provocations. The report again pointed to close cooperation of the U.N. Observer Mission in Georgia and the CIS Collective Peacekeeping force.” The Russian Foreign Ministry attaches much importance to the continuation of joint work with the U.N. personnel in the conflict zone, including joint patrolling of potential hotbeds of tension.

02.01.2008  ITAR-TASS

In his latest half-yearly report to the UN Security Council on the situation in Abkhazia, which was released on January 23, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon noted with regret that efforts to mediate a political settlement of the conflict are "at a standstill," and that "reliable observers on both sides of the cease-fire line have commented that the relationship between the two sides was in 2007 at its lowest point since the large-scale violence of 1998."

The tensions that persisted throughout 2007 are in part the logical continuation of the deterioration registered the previous year as a result of the deployment of Georgian special forces in July 2006 to the Kodor Gorge to quash an apparent insurrection masterminded by renegade local official Emzar Kvitsiani. Since then, the Abkhaz authorities have repeatedly said that a resumption of peace talks is contingent on the withdrawal of those Georgian forces, even though the UN has concluded that their presence does not, as the Abkhaz claim, violate a UN-mediated cease-fire agreement signed in 1994. And a series of disquieting incidents in which Russia was perceived to have played spoiler -- including the firing in March by unidentified aircraft of rockets at a Georgian-populated village in the Kodor Gorge, and a standoff in western Georgia in late October between Russian peacekeepers and Georgian forces that was defused only with the advent of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili -- only contributed to a hardening of the Georgian position.

The timing of that latter incident was all the more infelicitous in that it occurred less than a week after then-Georgian Minister for Conflict Resolution David Bakdradze traveled to Sukhum for talks with Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba. The talks lasted far longer than scheduled, and Bakradze was quoted as saying they might have paved the way for a resumption of dialogue. Similarly, in June 2006, President Saakashvili's envoy for Abkhazia, Irakli Alasania, who enjoyed a good working relationship with Shamba, was named Georgia's envoy to the UN less than a month after the resumption of talks with Abkhaz officials after a four-year hiatus.

At those talks in Tbilisi, Shamba and Alasania discussed the possibility of the two sides signing a formal agreement on the nonresumption of hostilities, a move that Tbilisi now categorically rules out. Speaking at RFE/RL's headquarters in Prague in June 2007, then-Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli said that Georgia would sign such a pact only as part of a broader set of agreements that would permit Georgian displaced persons to return to Abkhazia and provide guarantees of their security. Moreover, in the wake of the October standoff, Georgian officials are now demanding first, that the Russian peacekeeping force deployed in the conflict zone under the CIS aegis since July 1994 be replaced by an international force under the UN aegis, and second, that the UN undertake an in-depth evaluation of the effectiveness of the ongoing mediation process in which Russia plays a key role.

Ban identified a number of interrelated trends as contributing to the perceived further deterioration over the past six months in relations between Tbilisi and Sukhum(i), including a consistent pattern of "disinformation and misrepresentation" by the media that only serves to reinforce the existing "image of the enemy." Ban acknowledged that "a measure of disinformation is understandable and unavoidable in an environment where real apprehensions exist, tensions abound, and means of independent verification are scarce. But such disconnect as illustrated in the present report, between, on the one hand, realities on the ground and, on the other hand, media or official statements, is a matter of concern."

Elsewhere in his report, Ban similarly referred to "a large number of allegations concerning military deployment on both sides of the cease-fire line and incidents involving the Abkhaz militia or the CIS peacekeeping force." He noted that the UN Observer Mission in Georgia followed up on those allegations and found most of them to be "baseless or exaggerated," and he recalled his December 12 appeal to "all parties concerned" to demonstrate restraint and refrain from "acts of provocation," including militant rhetoric.

Ban cited as a further negative influence the political crackdown by the Georgian authorities in early November 2007 and the subsequent preterm presidential election held on January 5, to which the Abkhaz authorities responded with enhanced security measures along the cease-fire line. He also noted continued uncertainty over the future of Kosovo, insofar as the Georgian authorities fear Russia could respond to international recognition of a declaration of independence by the Kosovo leadership by similarly recognizing Abkhazia and other breakaway unrecognized republics as independent states.

In an apparent bid to dispel such fears, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed at a press conference in Moscow on January 23 that "the Russian leadership has never affirmed that as soon as Kosovo [is recognized as an independent state] we shall immediately recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. I stress that the Russian leadership has never said this." Lavrov continued: "I have the impression that the idea has become firmly rooted in many peoples' minds that Russia is taking such a firm stance on Kosovo, warns that it will set a precedent, but at the same time is secretly waiting for this to happen in order to begin recognizing all [the unrecognized states] on its borders. Nothing could be more wrong with regard to the Russian position. We understand perfectly the destabilizing effect of any separatist tendencies. It was not so long ago that we experienced this threat acutely ourselves, and for that reason you can suspect us of anything at all, but not of [encouraging separatism]. It is in our interests to preserve stability, not to permit separatism, not to permit any violations of international law. That will remain our position."

Ban concluded his report to the Security Council by referring to both the Georgian demands for a revision of the peacekeeping and negotiation formats, and to Abkhaz objections to any  fundamental change. He proposed a "reassessment of the peace process," while at the same time making clear that Russia, which Georgia hopes to sideline if not exclude, will, in its capacity as a member of the "Group of Friends of the Secretary General" group of countries, participate in that reassessment.

02.01.2008  RFE/RL