Moscow, The President of Abkhazia, Sergei Bagapsh, categorically dismissed on Tuesday the possibility of negotiations with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili without any precondition, to which Europe is urging.

“This will not happen,” he stressed in a newspaper interview. “I know why they need tete-a-tete talks of the presidents - in order to say then that Bagapsh and Saakashvili are meeting, and they would have had normal relations if Russia had not interfered,” the Abkhaz leader stressed.

“We won’t give them such a motive,” he said in an interview with the Kommersant daily on Tuesday.

“After the war we had a constructive dialogue with them, but the arrival of Saakashvili has put paid to it,” he stressed. “These people don’ t understand that apart from the use of force there are also negotiations. They don’t understand that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are not boys in short pants, but full-fledged partners in negotiations,” Bagapsh emphasized.

Bagapsh also specified that Abkhazia does not link “its fight for independence with the recognition of Kosovo”. However, it such decision on Kosovo is approved, “it will untie the hands of other states for the recognition of Abkhazia, the Dniester region, Nagorno Karabakh and South Ossetia,” he believes.

07.31.2007  Itar-Tass

Georgian officials have taken issue with specific points of the most recent quarterly report on the situation in Abkhazia by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. That report, dated July 18, was submitted to the UN Security Council on July 23.

Ban noted that at a meeting with Abkhaz and Georgian government representatives in Bonn in late June, UN Undersecretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Marie Guehenno expressed concern that Georgia’s decision to open a patriotic camp for young people at Ganmukhuri close to the cease-fire line could fuel tensions between the two sides or even lead to a resumption of hostilities. Ban’s report specifically called on the Georgian government to move the camp away from the conflict zone, stressing that "civic and political activities...should be carried out in a manner that does not allow for misunderstanding, miscalculation, and subsequent violence." Ban also expressed concern at recent reports of the presence of unidentified armed men in the lower Kodori Gorge (see "Georgia: Is Armed Conflict Brewing?" rferl.org, July 2, 2007).

Georgia denied any knowledge of or connection with those persons. Shota Malashkhia, who heads the Georgian parliament’s Interim Commission on the Restoration of Territorial Integrity, argued in Tbilisi on July 24 that the Ganmukhuri camp is an essential component of President Mikheil Saakashvili’s peace plan for Abkhazia, and to close it would be to sabotage that plan, Caucasus Press reported.

Kote Gabashvili, who chairs the parliament Commission on Foreign Relations, accused Ban of caving in to Russian pressure. Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili and newly appointed Conflict Resolution Minister Davit Bakradze said the UN should concentrate on "major issues," such as the repatriation of Georgian displaced persons, according to Caucasus Press on July 25.

In Sukhum, Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba said on July 24 that Ban’s report adequately reflected Abkhazia’s concerns, apsny.ru reported. He expressed satisfaction that Ban advocated the closure of the Ganmukhuri camp. Also on July 24, the Georgian Defense Ministry posted on its website (mod.ge) a breakdown of the 1 billion laris ($602.8 million) it plans to spend this year, Caucasus Press reported.

President Saakashvili said in Tbilisi the same day the increase in defense funding will make it possible to increase to 200,000 the number of trained reservists Georgia could mobilize in the event of a conflict. LF

07.25.2007  Eurasianet

Abkhaz side is fully satisfied with the report of the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued today, Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba reported in an interview with the Official website of the President.

According to him, the UN Secretary General reflected in the report all the points, at which official Sukhum focused at the meeting of the “Group of Friends” in Bonn (Germany), held about a month ago.

"Our concern over the situation in the upper Kodor Valley was adequately received by the international community. And those points that were outlined in the report of the "Group of Friends" appeared in the report of the UN Secretary General, and we are certainly pleased," said chief diplomat of Abkhazia.

"We are also glad that the international community has explicitly stated that the Georgian side must move the youth camp near the border with Abkhazia in another place," said Shamba.

Sergei Shamba hopes that the international pressure on Georgia in connection with its desire to escalate tensions will grow.

"Even though a month has already passed since the meeting in Bonn, real steps to implement the agreement that we have reached there have not started. Georgia continues to ignore the suggestions of the international community," stressed the Foreign Minister.

According to Shamba, it is primarily on the joint investigation into the kidnapping in the Gal region of a citizen of Abkhazia David Sigua.

The investigation team has not yet started its work.07.24.2007  Abkhazia.gov.org

Sukhum, Agency CaucasusThe Abkhazian administration places focus on homecoming from Diaspora over again after earlier official attempts failed to meet expectations.

The Abkhazian Parliamentary Committee for Return held a meeting in an effort to draw up a newer official program of encouragement for future returns from Diaspora.

The committee meeting promoted a proposal to meet the needs prior to the settling of Abazins as a whole.

Words of support for anyone who wants to return to Abkhazia came from the Parliament Speaker Nugzar Ashuba when he proposed that further work with schooling both at college and university levels should be developed.

Soner Gogua, an Abkhazian member of the parliament of Turkish descent, who acts as head of the committee, was heard to place emphasis on the need to provide accommodation as well as employment for returnees.

Information about returnees came from Anzor Mukba, Head of the State Committee for Demography and Return. He quoted a total of 571 families as being officially accommodated from 2005 to 2007. Those families include the Abkhazians who came both from and Batum, and the Abazins who came from Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria and . A group of 282 people switched in 2005 to Abkhazian citizenship, 1246 in 2006 and 122 in 2007.

Most returnees are seeking a place to occupy in the capital city of Sukhum.

Returnees have to agree not to sell their houses for the next 15 years if they want to be officially accommodated.

One of the participants at the committee meeting was Sergei Shamba, Foreign Minister of Abkhazia. He delivered to other participants some information both about the Georgian Group of Friends meeting at the headquarters of United Nations (UN) Secretary General and his talks with several officials about Abkhazian Diaspora.

A returnee of Turkish descent captured in Tbilisi

Gogua asked Shamba for help with the release of a returnee of Abkhazian citizenship when he spoke about an incident in which Georgian front guards arrested members of a crew on a Turkish vessel while it was carrying coal from Abkhazia.

07.19.2007  Agency Caucasus

Sukhum, Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba of Abkhazia returned with positive words from the meeting of Georgia’s Group of Friends at the headquarters of United Nations (UN) Secretary-General.

Shamba told reporters that his talks with officials across Germany left him with the impression that there is nowadays a far more positive view of the Abkhazian demand for recognition.

“Even those who would think it impossible for Abkhazia to gain recognition of independence now tend to have a change for better in their outlook,” the official news agency Apsnipress quoted Shamba as saying.

The June 27 and 28 meeting of Georgia’s Group of Friends in Bonn was far better in comparison with previous meetings, said Shamba. This group enables negotiation with Georgians, he added.

“Talks of this kind give us one importance chance of expressing our own position. All criticism went to Georgia during the entire meeting. There was also discussion over Georgian willingness to withdraw from Kodor as a prior condition for resumption in talks,” Shamba said.

Good news about Turkey

Talks at the meeting focused at one moment, said Shamba, on the surprising possibility of creating between Sukhum and Trabzon a means of marine transportation by which the Abkhazians in Diaspora can maintain contact with their homeland.

“One of the items that appeared on the list of to-dos after the meeting ended was the establishing of transportation between Sukhum and Trabzon. The Georgian proposition that vessels must stop by the ports of both Poti and Batum for controlling was rejected. Another Georgian proposition that vessels must be controlled within the waters of Georgian border security was also rejected. These two rejections helped us to maintain firmly that vessels must be controlled by the Abkhazian border security, along with assistance from United Nations (UN) military observers as well as the Peace Forces of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).”

Shamba spoke for Abkhazia when he said his government seeks continuation of peace talks under UN supervision.

Abkhazian Diaspora most active in Germany

Germany was defined in Shamba’s words as the central European country where the Abkhazian Diaspora is most active as he expressed growing optimism for the future after he met in Düsseldorf with a large group of participants from several European countries.

07.18.2007  Agency Caucasus

I resigned voluntarily, since I did not want bloodshed

Ex-president of Georgia Eduard Shevardnadze’s interview to APA
 

- What is your assessment of internal and foreign policy of present Georgian government?
 

- The present policy has positive sides. But there also are unsolved problems. The main unsolved problem is unemployment. There are no enough jobs in the country. The main reforms land, educational and health reforms were carried out during my tenure and continue at present. As regards the international relations, the present authority is pursuing active policy.
 

- Did you have enough power to keep the authority? Would you use this power, if it were possible to turn back the clock?
 

- If I had not left the power voluntarily, civil war could have broken out. I did not want bloodshed. People used to live in peace and stability at that time, they had jobs though their salaries were little. Was there need for any bloodshed?..
 

- How do you appreciate current relations between Georgia and Russia, especially when the situation is too tense in the conflicting zone?
 

- Georgia is to blame for tense relations with Russia. Selling low-quality wines, fruit and vegetable to Russia, we caused discontent between the two countries. Russia’s dissatisfaction was grounded. But Russia made some mistakes while taking retaliatory measures. It was wrong to deport Georgians living in Russia. Over half million Georgians live in Russia and it is impossible to deport all of them.
 

- What can you say about the solution of the conflicts in the South Caucasus?
 

- I can not say exactly when, but conflicts in the south Caucasus – Nagorno Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflicts are about to be solved. I believe that Sochi Olympiad in 2014 will have great influence on the solution of problems with Abkhazia. Sochi is close both to Georgia and Abkhazia.

- Do you think that Georgia is ready to be admitted to NATO and implement its commitments?

- NATO is not against Georgia’s membership. I have twice been to NATO headquarters, they were not against it at that time, but it needs time. I think that Georgia’s membership will be debated only after Ukraine’s membership will be solved. Georgian government tries to implement necessary standards. Georgia will be ready to be admitted to NATO in a year or two.

- What can you say about repatriation of Ahiska Turks?

- I negotiated with Moscow on repatriation of Ahiska Turks during the former Soviet period. We mainly negotitied on repatriation of Ahiska Turks not to the places they had been deported from, but to different territories of Georgia. Other people now live in the places used to be settled by Ahiska Turks. Repatriation of Ahiska Turks to these places might cause new problems. If they are repatriated now, they will not be able to settle in this area. On the other hand, Ahiska Turks may not want to return. Necessary living conditions should be created for them, which need time. The majority of Ahiska Turks live in Krasnodar, Russia. They have houses and all necessary living conditions. The state of Ahiska Turks living in Azerbaijan is also normal. They might not want to return.

- It would be interesting to know your opinion of Azerbaijan’s internal and foreign policy…

- Heydar Aliyev was my closest friend. Azerbaijan’s development and prosperity shows that the decision on bringing Ilham Aliyev to power was passed in time. I wish peace, welfare and happiness to Azerbaijani people.

07.16.2007  APA

Moscow, A local television channel will be set up in Gal, a district in Abkhazia that lies along the Georgian border and includes a demilitarized zone patrolled by Russian peacekeepers, a senior Abkhaz official was quoted on Wednesday as saying.

The channel would broadcast in the Russian, Abkhaz and Megrelian languages, the Abkhaz president's official website said, citing Ruslan Kishmaria, his envoy to Gal district and chief Abkhaz negotiator with Georgia. There is a large Megrelian community in Gal, the bulk of whose population are ethnic Georgians.

"It is an essentially new project, one that we have been planning to put into practice for several years. This project is of strategic significance in the sense of the integration of the district into the space of Abkhazia," the site quoted Kishmaria as saying.

The channel would broadcast daily news bulletins "about the life of the area and the entire country," Kishmaria said.

07.11.2007  Interfax

Sukhum, The National Assembly in the first reading adopted changes in the legislation governing the protection of the higher authorities.

The Parliament intends to strengthen protection of senior government officials.

The Parliament of Abkhazia adopted in the first reading amendments to the Administrative Code, prohibiting the use of vehicles with tinted windows. If the law is adopted only official government vehicles will be allowed to move with tinted windows. Conditions of coloring glass of citizens’ cars will be discussed in further readin.

07.11.2007  abkhaziagov.org

Sukhum, People's Assembly-Parliament of Abkhazia adopted in the final reading a new version of the State emblem and flag of the Republic of Abkhazia. So far, laws on national symbols of 1992 and 1994were acting.

"Projects of constitutional laws do not change the existing state flag, emblem and anthem, they are to regulate the use and application of the official state symbols and their legal protection", said senior officer of the law and economics department of the Presidential Administration Dmitri Shamba to the Official Site of the President. In particular, it is provided that the State flag to be raised and the National Emblem to be placed on the buildings: the Presidential Administration, the People's Assembly-Parliament, the Cabinet of Ministers, the Supreme Court, the Arbitration Court, the General Prosecutor's Office, National Bank, as well as the buildings of the public administration and local self-government bodies.

07.11.2007  abkhaziagov.org

Sukhum, The government of Abkhazia issued a statement in connection with the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Alexander Ankuab, in which the terror act in Gudauta is called threat to the statehood of the country.

The Cabinet of Ministers stressed that the attack on Prime Minister threatens to destabilize the situation in the country and eventually work for the interests of those who are interested in the elimination of the statehood of Abkhazia.

Earlier almost the entire political spectrum reacted to the terror attack that took place in Gudauta. The statements were distributed by the parties "United Abkhazia", "Amtsakhara", "Aitaira", and the Popular Unity Forum, which units a group of opposition political forces.

Political forces claimed from the law enforcement agencies effective investigation and to bring those responsible to justice.

A number of political movements appealed to the President and to the law enforcement authorities demanding to the suspend law enforcement officers, the work of which is unsatisfactory.

Today, the President Sergei Bagapsh will meet with the country's political forces to discuss the situation in the country in connection with the assassination attempt on the Prime Minister.

07.10.2007  abkhaziagov.org

Sukhum, Unidentified assailants opened fire on a car carrying the prime minister of Abkhazia on Monday, lightly injuring him, officials said.

A grenade launcher was apparently used in the attack on Alexander Ankuab, who has survived three assassination attempts since he took office in early 2005, said Abkhazia's top police official, Otar Khetsiya. There was no word on suspects or a motive.

Ankuab's car came under fire in the morning while en route to Sukhum, the capital of the Black Sea republic, Khetsiya said.

Ankuab said a grenade hit the trunk of the car, Interfax reported. He said he had shrapnel wounds in his back and was shaken up by the blast, but that nobody was seriously injured in the attack. (AP)

07.10.2007  The Moscow Times

Sukhum, Head of State made a statement in connection with the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Alexander Ankuab.

The President announced a compensation of 500,000 rubles for information that will help to disclose the crime.

"Repeated attempts to remove the Prime Minister of the country indicate only one thing : there are certain groups that are actively trying to prevent the transformations started in the republic, to prevent the work of the president’s team, aimed at economic reforms and fight against organized crime", the Head of State believes.

"Perhaps, this way these people are trying to destabilize the intra-social situation in Abkhazia. Consciously or not, but in doing so, they perform a political order of our opponents, the country that Abkhazia is in a state of war with," said the President of the Republic.

Sergei Bagapsh stressed that the authorities can not be intimidated, and they will not desist from path of reforms and development. "The government's policy will not change, and such kind of “pressure" will not "force the government of the Republic to walk away from the chosen path," said the President of Abkhazia.

07.09.2007  abkhaziagov.org

Sukhum, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia sent a note to the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General Jean Arnault and the Friends of the UN Secretary-General about the actions of the Georgian, which are threatening the negotiating process and security in the region.

Abkhazia is concerned with the capture of the Turkish vessel that was carrying a cargo of coal from the port of Ochamchira.

As the Foreign Ministry of Abkhazia states, Georgia uses a mechanism of negotiating process as a cover for military and political provocations.

The Abkhaz FM calls on the international community to respond to the actions of Georgia, undercutting the negotiating process and violating stability in the region.

"In such circumstances, the lack of an adequate response from the mediators in the negotiation process may indirectly encourage aggression of Georgia, which could lead to a new conflict", said in the note of the Abkhaz Foreign Ministry.

Official Sukhum requests the Group of Friends of the Secretary-General of the United Nations to help to release the Turkish ship and its crew members seized by the Georgian side.

07.09.2007  abkhaziagov.org

Moscow, The presidents of the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Sergei Bagapsh and Eduard Kokoity, will discuss the situation in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone at a meeting in Moscow on Monday.

The situation in the conflict zone remains tense. "The Georgian side is not stopping provocations aimed at aggravating the situation," Bagapsh said.

"Once again I am inviting the Georgian side to sit down at the negotiating table and to deal with the existing problems within the framework of earlier reached understandings," Kokoity said.

07.09.2007  Interfax

Moscow, by Piotr Romanov, International law, which has never been in good health, is on its deathbed once again, not long after almost succumbing to a grave illness provoked by Washington's Iraq war launched in stark disregard of the UN Charter.

The new disease is called Kosovo. Cristina Gallach, the spokesperson for Javier Solana, the European Union's High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, said the EU would take matters into its own hands and make a decision on Kosovo if Russia continued to say "no."

"Russia has maintained its position, but Kosovo is a European problem," Gallach said in an interview published in the popular Serbian newspaper Vecerne Novosti Tuesday.

"The Balkans' future depends on Europe, not Russia. Therefore, the EU will make a decision if need be, but only with the UN Security Council's consent," Gallach said, according to RIA Novosti.

Russia threatened to veto a UN Security Council resolution that would effectively set the Serbian province, which has a majority ethnic Albanian population, on the path to sovereignty.

Since Russia's right of veto cannot be revoked according to the UN Charter, and the stance of Moscow and Belgrade on the Kosovo problem is firm, Gallach's words can only mean that the EU plans to ignore Russia's veto, the UN Charter, and the principle of the inviolability of borders which has guided the international community since World War II.

I don't know for sure if Ms. Gallach has adequately interpreted the position of her boss and the EU as a whole, but if she has, then the EU policy is misguided.

How long will the UN live if everyone starts violating its charter?

The EU has no regard for Serbia either, as it believes the Serbs are guilty of bringing forth Slobodan Milosevic and must therefore be made to pay for their blunder. (I wonder what would have become of Germany if the international community had assumed a similar stance regarding Germans for allowing Hitler to come to power?)

The advocates of sovereignty for Kosovo close their eyes to the fact that there are many similar hot spots in Europe. They believe that the policy of double standards is the only correct one, that Kosovo is unique, and no parallels can be drawn with Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnestr, breakaway republics in the former Soviet countries of Georgia and Moldova.

Ms. Gallach has not taken time to think that the people in those republics are no less deserving than Kosovo Albanians. Geography is the only thing she cares about. For her, Kosovo Albanians have a right to independence because Kosovo is adjacent to Western Europe, whereas Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnestr border on Russia and hence have no right to independence.

Milosevic's unwise policy provoked a never-ending exodus from the Balkans, with Albanians fleeing the wrath of Serbians and later coming back to slaughter them. Tentative estimates say 200,000 people have fled the province.

How many more will have to abandon their homes if the European bureaucrats get their way? There are 180,000 non-Albanians in Kosovo, all of them potential victims or refugees. Who will guarantee their security if Kosovo gains independence, especially since the province has already become Europe's "gray zone" controlled by criminals and drug barons?

Will the EU, which has failed to rid Kosovo of drugs, protect its women and children who are not Albanians or Muslims? Have we forgotten about the cowardice of the Dutch peacekeepers, whose "lack of initiative" helped set the stage for the mass killing in Srebrenica? None of them have been called to account.

Have European politicians ever thought about the "Kosovar identity," which can be interpreted as the dream of Kosovo's Albanian extremists to take over the adjacent European regions predominantly populated by Albanians? Have they noticed that this will concern the territorial integrity of Macedonia, Montenegro and northern Albania? So, Serbia is not the only country concerned here.

In other words, Kosovo is not ready for independence politically, economically, or in terms of security. Neither are Serbia, Russia, and Europe ready for it to be independent. The only ones who claim to be ready are irresponsible EU bureaucrats, Albanian nationalists, and the Bush administration. But Washington also claimed to be ready for the Iraq war, if I'm not mistaken.

The old order is crumbling before our very eyes. Russia has firmly upheld the territorial integrity of Georgia and Moldova, in line with international law and even though its relations with these states are far from ideal. What should it do now, support separatist tendencies on its border? Or withdraw from the UN?

This reminds me of the demise of the League of Nations and of the run-up to World War II.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

07.04.2007  RIA Novosti

The president of the Council of Europe's Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) is scheduled to start today a tour to the South Caucasus.

Rene van der Linden said the main goal of his trip to Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan is to look at ways to settle the frozen conflicts in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh.

He will first visit Armenia and Georgia, including a July 7 visit to South Ossetia. He then moves on to Azerbaijan for July 8-10.

07.04.2007  Itar-Tass

By Liz Fuller, Senior political figures in Russia and in the unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have expressed concern in recent days that the escalation of tensions in the South Ossetian conflict zone herald a new attempt by Georgia to restore what they consider its hegemony over that unrecognized republic by force of arms.

Senior political figures in Russia and in the unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have expressed concern in recent days that the escalation of tensions in the South Ossetian conflict zone herald a new attempt by Georgia to restore what they consider its hegemony over that unrecognized republic by force of arms.

There is also speculation, however, that Georgian artillery attacks on the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, could equally be intended to deflect attention from a planned incursion into Abkhazia, possibly as the world focuses on the informal talks in Kennebunkport between U.S. President George W. Bush and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

Georgia has sought on two previous occasions to coopt irregular forces to launch a new incursion into Abkhazia to bring that breakaway republic back under its control.

As recently as June 26, Dmitry Sanakoyev, whom Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili named in May to head a pro-Tbilisi provisional administration in South Ossetia that is clearly intended to take control of the region following the collapse of the current pro-Moscow leadership headed by de facto President Eduard Kokoity, assured members of the European Parliament in Brussels of his commitment to direct dialogue with the people of South Ossetia to a peaceful solution to the conflict that erupted in 1990.

Violence Breaks Out

But within days, three separate mortar attacks were launched on Tskhinvali on June 29 and 30, reportedly killing one young man and injuring a second man and a woman. Moscow and Tskhinvali have blamed Tbilisi for the attacks, although Georgian officials have denied any responsibility. That denial raises the possibility that renegade elements within the Georgian armed forces were acting on their own initiative, as was apparently the case in August 2004, when Georgian Interior Ministry troops launched a disastrous attack on South Ossetian villages in which up to a dozen Georgians were killed.

Kokoity on June 29 held talks in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who impressed on him the need for the "maximum restraint." The following day, Kokoity told fellow Ossetians in Vladikavkaz, the capital of neighboring North Ossetia, that "no matter how difficult it is for us, we shall not allow the dummy government in Tbilisi to draw us into an armed conflict."

On June 29, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon made an unannounced visit to Tbilisi, where he met with President Saakashvili and parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze. No details of their talks were divulged, but senior diplomats from the so-called Friends of the UN Secretary-General group of countries (France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) met in Bonn on June 27-28 with senior Abkhaz and Georgian officials to discuss, among other issues, the security situation in the Kodori Gorge, which straddles the territory of the unrecognized republic of Abkhazia and Georgia proper. Tbilisi deployed Interior Ministry troops in July 2006 to the upper, Georgian-controlled part of the gorge, but is now in the process of withdrawing them and coopting local personnel to serve as their replacement, according to a detailed summary of the Bonn talks posted on June 29 on kavkaz-uzel.ru.

Unidentified Armed Men

According to the summary, the diplomats expressed concern in Bonn at reports that unidentified armed men have been spotted in the lower, Abkhaz-controlled sector of the Kodori Gorge, and they called on both the Georgian and Abkhaz delegations to the talks to investigate and clarify those reports. The Georgian delegation reportedly denied that any Georgian security personnel have ventured on to territory controlled by the Abkhaz side.

Georgia has sought on two previous occasions to coopt irregular forces to launch a new incursion into Abkhazia to bring that breakaway republic back under its control. The first attempt, in May 1998, by two Georgian guerrilla formations, the so-called White Legion and Forest Brothers, was launched across the Inguri River that marks the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia, and failed spectacularly.

In the second, in early October 2001, senior Georgian officials whose identity has never been established coopted Chechen resistance fighters loyal to field commander Ruslan Gelayev and transported them across Georgia to the Kodori Gorge, whence they sought to penetrate Abkhaz territory. They were, however, beaten back by the Abkhaz armed forces (see also "Particpants Disclose Details Of Gelaev Abkhaz Incursion"). More than 100 people were reported killed in the 1998 offensive and some 40 -- including five UN observers -- in 2001. Any armed force that did succeed in advancing to the lower reaches of the Kodori Gorge would be strategically placed to launch an attack on the Abkhaz capital, Sukhum.

Warning Note?

Could UN Secretary-General Ban's lightning stopover in Tbilisi have been connected with the reported presence of unidentified fighters in Abkhazia? If so, Ban might have delivered a warning to President Saakashvili that any new military aggression in Abkhazia would not only incur condemnation from the international community, but risk undercutting Georgia's position at the ongoing UN-mediated peace talks.

But Saakashvili, who has on numerous occasions referred to the Abkhaz and Ossetians as "brothers" and "allies" whom he professes to love, must be acutely aware that he has a maximum of 15-16 months to make good on his repeated pledges to restore Georgia's territorial integrity before his first presidential term expires. Should he try and fail, he will be perceived as a lame duck, and strengthen the man observers identify as his likely main challenger in the 2008 presidential ballot, Irakli Okruashvili, a decided hawk who has served as both defense and interior minister. It was Okruashvili who, as interior minister, commanded the abortive attack on South Ossetia three summers ago. Okruashvili is currently said to be preparing to launch his own political party, to which some parliament deputies from Saakashvili's United National Movement are reportedly ready to defect.07.02.2007  RFE/RL